Prediction markets are coming to Canada

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 21:00:00 -0400

Wealthsimple is a fintech company at the forefront of a lot of innovation in Canada’s personal finance sector since the company’s founding in 2014. Notably, Wealthsimple was the first broker in Canada to offer zero-commission trades, back in 2019. In 2020, they started offering the ability to trade crypto. In 2025, they launched zero-commission options trading. This year, the company received regulatory approval to bring prediction trading to Canada.

Unlike in other parts of the world, prediction markets have not flourished in Canada and have been considered basically illegal since a 2017 ruling from Canada’s federal securities regulator. Wealthsimple has been able to get around this ruling by only offering contracts on a narrow set of questions:

Despite a 2017 ruling that largely banned these kinds of short-term, yes-or-no contracts, certain regulated firms that are CIRO members are able to offer certain types of “event contracts,” […] The approval for Ontario-based Wealthsimple permits it only to offer contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends, the company confirmed – not sports or elections, which are among the most popular uses of prediction markets in the United States.

Wealthsimple has driven innovation in the Canadian personal finance sector; however, their new product offerings over the last few years seem to be speedrunning the Robinhood trajectory toward high-risk, high-volatility trading and away from their traditional niche of broad, diversified funds/ETFs for ordinary people to set-and-forget. This pivot can be understood as part of a broader trend toward the casinofication of everything, which took off with crypto and the legalization of online sports betting.

Prediction markets incentivize bad behaviour

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 18:19:00 -0400

The Times of Israel journalist Emanuel Fabian is claiming that Polymarket gamblers (sorry, “traders”) have threatened his life over a report he released about an Iranian missile attack on Israel on March 10. According to the rules, this bet resolves as true if Iran strikes Israel using a drone, a missile, or an air strike on this date. At issue here is this specific rule:

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

On March 10, Fabian reported a single missile had hit an open area outside the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh; he included in the report a video of the strike. This would resolve the bet as “Yes”. Evidently, holders of “No” shares would very much like him to change his report to say that the missile was intercepted, which would resolve the bet as “No”, according referenced above. This bet has seen more than 23 million USD in trading volume.

If you look at the vitriol in the comments of the bet on Polymarket, I have no trouble believing people would send threats to a journalist demanding him to change his story, whether out of desperation to change their fortunes or just in an attempt to be edgy.

Prediction Markets on Big Muddy

Prediction markets are coming to Canada

Prediction markets incentivize bad behaviour